What’s at stake for the Toronto Raptors at the NBA Draft Lottery?
Statistically and historically speaking, they don’t have much of a chance. But the prize is still worth dreaming on.
It’s an exciting date on the annual NBA calendar … for about half the league, anyway. And this year, that group includes the Toronto Raptors.
That’s right — it’s time for the NBA Draft Lottery. On the evening of Tues., May 16, the Raptors and 13 other non-playoff teams will find out in real time where they slot in the coming NBA Entry Draft, and which of them gets the coveted No. 1 pick.
This year, that means the chance to select French prospect Victor Wembanyama, one of the most sought-after young players in recent memory due to incredible skill at his incredible size — seven-foot-five in shoes.
Victor Wembanyama’s highlights from his last game are ridiculous.
— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) May 8, 2023
This isn’t even fair 😂 pic.twitter.com/jRf8dRWK1n
A player with Wembanyama’s potential can absolutely change a franchise’s trajectory, which, if we’re being honest, the Raptors could use right now. That said, given the team’s odds, they’ll need a whole lot of luck to accomplish the task.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the lottery, the Raptors’ place in it, and how the team has fared at this event in the past.
How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?
As mentioned above, the NBA’s 14 non-playoff teams each year get entered into the lottery.
The first pick is the big prize, but it’s actually the first four picks that are up for grabs. Once those are decided the remaining lottery teams are slotted five through 14 by regular-season record.
A team’s odds of rising in the draft are also determined by record. The worst teams get the best odds, but there are some intricacies. For instance, to disincentivize outright tanking, the league changed the rules in 2017 so that each of the three worst teams has the same odds at winning the first pick: 14 per cent.
Here’s a handy chart from NBA.com:
TEAM | RECORD | WIN% | LOTTERY PROBABILITY |
---|---|---|---|
Detroit | 17-65 | .207 | 14.0% |
Houston | 22-60 | .268 | 14.0% |
San Antonio | 22-60 | .268 | 14.0% |
Charlotte | 27-55 | .329 | 12.5% |
Portland | 33-49 | .402 | 10.5% |
Orlando | 34-48 | .415 | 9.0% |
Indiana | 35-47 | .427 | 6.8% |
Washington | 35-47 | .427 | 6.7% |
Utah | 37-45 | .451 | 4.5% |
Dallas | 38-44 | .463 | 3.0% |
Chicago | 40-42 | .488 | 1.8% |
Oklahoma City | 40-42 | .488 | 1.7% |
Toronto | 41-41 | .500 | 1.0% |
New Orleans | 42-40 | .512 | 0.5% |
As you can see, with a regular-season record of 41-41, the Raptors have the 13th best odds of landing the No. 1 pick. The odds of jumping into the top four are a little better, but it’s still a massive long shot:
With the Thunder and Bulls losing tonight Raptors get 13th best odds in the lottery
— Esfandiar Baraheni (@JustEsBaraheni) April 15, 2023
2.1% chance at top 2
4.7% chance at top 4 👇🏼 https://t.co/uo5w3J7xIr
How have the Raptors done in the lottery in the past?
This year marks Toronto’s 16th time in the lottery (17 if you count 2013, when they owed their pick to Oklahoma City via Houston as part of the trade that brought Kyle Lowry to town). And it’s been a bit of a mixed bag.
They’ve moved up three times — most famously jumping to No. 1 in the 2006 draft, where they selected Andrea Bargnani, and most recently when they leapt from No. 7 to No. 4 to grab eventual rookie of the year Scottie Barnes in 2021. They’ve also moved down (as in, got leapfrogged by other teams) five times, and stood pat eight times.
Here’s the full history:
Year | Odds | Pre-Lottery Position | Pick | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 1.0% | 13 | ? | ? |
2021 | 7.5% | 7 | 4 | 3 |
2012 | 3.5% | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2011 | 15.6% | 3 | 5 | -2 |
2010 | 0.6% | 13 | 13 | 0 |
2009 | 1.7% | 9 | 9 | 0 |
2006 | 8.8% | 5 | 1 | +4 |
2005 | 3.6% | 7 | 7 | 0 |
2004 | 3.7% | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2003 | 15.7% | 3 | 4 | -1 |
1999 | 12.0% | 4 | 5 | -1 |
1999 | 0.7% | 11 | 12 | -1 |
1998 | 0.0% | 2 | 4 | -2 |
1997 | 0.0% | 9 | 9 | 0 |
1996 | 0.0% | 3 | 2 | +1 |
1995 | 0.0% | 7 | 7 | 0 |
This history won’t provide a lot of reason for hope for Tuesday’s lottery. Back in 2010, the only other time the Raptors had the 13th-best odds heading into they lottery, they ended up picking … 13th.
Also discouraging? No team with the 13th-best odds has ever won the No. 1 pick. According to Real GM, the highest lottery leap came all the way back in 1993. That year, the Orlando Magic jumped from 11th to claim the No. 1 pick, which turned out to be another incredibly unique seven-plus footer — Shaquille O’Neal.
So the Raptors winning the Wembanyama Sweepstakes would be a truly unprecedented feat.
That said, there’s a chance. (A one per cent chance, but still.)
Code and markup by Kyle Duncan. ©Torontoverse, 2023